Hours before the Ping-Pong Balls Bounce

The Utah Jazz have never won the NBA draft lottery. Granted, they're rarely there, but the last time they were in the top four, they fell to #6. They made some deals, though, to move u to #3 and were able to pick Deron Williams, who in two years had the team in the Western Conference Finals.

Williams is gone, and the Jazz got for him Devin Harris, last year's #3 Derrick Favors, this year's #6 (if nothing changes), and next year's Golden State pick Top-7 protected.

Now next year's draft looks like it will be one of the deepest in history so even if the Jazz wind up around #11 with that pick, they can still get a potential All-Star out of there. This year, however, is projected to be the weakest in a decade, and if the Jazz don't land in the top 2, I think the best they'll get are two role-players.

Now there are always surprise players who fall to late first-round or second-round who become stars, but history bears out that the lower the pick, the greater the odds the player won't pan out. And even then, the #1 pick has included players like Kwame Brown and Michael Olowokandi, the #2 pick has included Darko Milicic and Marvin Williams, etc.


I do think Kyrie Irving (PG) and Derrick Williams (SF/PF) will be legitimate stars in this league. I think Brandan Knight will be a top-ten point guard. Everyone else in this draft to me is a question mark.

So if the Jazz wind up staying at #6 and #12 (or worse, #7 and #12), then luck's going to have to be a major lady. Is it possible for a franchise-changer in this weak draft to wind up there? Sure. Is it likely? No. And without a returning All-Star on the team and a Hall of Fame coach walking the sidelines, there's also no guarantee the Jazz won't be back for many years to come.

ESPN's Around the Horn watch

I watch more of this show than I should, as I only care about football and basketball. Don't mention baseball to me until the playoffs, and I'm not about to pretend I care about hockey, soccer, tennis, golf, etc. So it's to these guys' credit that I still watch 3-4 times a week.

The show hasn't missed a step since firing Jay Mariotti with a deep roster of old and young pros.

Of the older types, I like Bob Ryan, Bill Plaschke, Woody Paige and Jackie McMullan. As for the rest, I enjoy JA Adande, Michael Smith, Kevin Blackistone and Tim Cowlishaw.

Gordon Hayward is a stud

The rookie out of Butler scored 34 points in the Jazz's final game of the season. At least they didn't have a losing home record.

So between him and Favors, and two lotto picks this summer, things aren't looking so bad. This really isn't a good year for the Jazz to have a looming lockout. Coach Ty Corbin needs to be able to work with his staff, develop schemes, work the summer league, etc.

My NBA Awards

MVP
LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are co-MVPs. Kobe's having another great year but the support he's been getting from Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom is invaluable. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are another great one-two punch out there. But...

Dwight Howard is a machine in Orlando, and Stan Van's rightfully pumping him up. Also, Dirk showed just how vulnerable his team is when he's not playing. But Derrick Rose has pushed the Bulls to be the best team in the East when his two best supporting players - Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah - each missed significant time.

1. Derrick Rose, Bulls
2. Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks
3. Dwight Howard, Magic

Coach of the Year
Jerry Sloan did a great job covering up a lot of holes. He retired when the Jazz were 31-23, and the subsequence collapse of the team showed just how valuable he was. Erik Spoelstra got things under control after a 9-8 start for the Heat. Doug Collins (76ers) and Lionel Hollins (Grizzlies) got their teams to the playoffs, when no one expected it. And of course, the boytoy Phil Jackson (Lakers) is keeping the most expensive team in the NBA afloat. But...

The Spurs have the best record in the NBA when they're supposed to be getting too old. Tim Duncan's older and slower maybe, but really, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are not that old. And Thibodeau's defensive schemes are really paying off. But when I look at the turmoil in Denver, the Melo drama, the mid-season trade, he successfully coached two turbulent rosters.

1. George Karl, Nuggets
2. Tom Thibodeau, Bulls
3. Gregg Popovich, Spurs

Rookie of the Year
There's zero - ZERO - question who the winner is.

1. Blake Griffin, Clippers
2. John Wall, Wizards
3. DeMarcus Cousins, Kings

Sixth Man of the Year
Let's face it. Odom starts on at least two-thirds of other rosters in the NBA.

1. Lamar Odom, Lakers
2. Jason Terry, Mavericks
3. CJ Miles, Jazz

Defensive Player of the Year
1. Dwight Howard, Magic
2. Joakim Noah, Bulls
3. Grant Hill, Suns

Most Improved Player of the Year
1. LaMarcus Aldridge, Blazers
2. Kevin Love, Timberwolves
3. Derrick Rose, Bulls

NBA Rookie Watch

Rookie Watch
The Per 36 Minutes stats.

1. JOHN WALL
PER 15.2 / pts 15.3 / rbs 4.2 / ast 8.2 / stl 1.5 / blk 0.4 / fg% .405 / 3p% .290

2. EVAN TURNER
PER 10.2 / pts 11.0 / rbs 6.2 / ast 2.0 / stl 0.6 / blk 0.2 / fg% .419 / 3p% .275

3. DERRICK FAVORS
PER 13.4 / pts 12.3 / rbs 9.6 / ast 0.8 / stl 0.6 / blk 1.5 / fg% .515 / 3p% ---

4. WESLEY JOHNSON
PER 10.0 / pts 12.4 / rbs 4.1 / ast 2.6 / stl 0.9 / blk 0.9 / fg% .401 / 3p% .356

5. DEMARCUS COUSINS
PER 14.3 / pts 17.9 / rbs 10.9 / ast 3.1 / stl 1.3 / blk 1.1 / fg% .428 / 3p% .176

6. EKPE UDOH
PER 9.7 / pts 8.6 / rbs 6.3 / ast 1.4 / stl 0.7 / blk 2.9 / fg% .446 / 3p% ---

7. GREG MONROE
PER 17.5 / pts 12.0 / rbs 9.6 / ast 1.5 / stl 1.5 / blk 0.7 / fg% .548 / 3p% ---

8. AL-FAROUQ AMINU
PER 9.9 / pts 11.6 / rbs 6.6 / ast 1.5 / stl 1.5 / blk 0.7 / fg% .391 / 3p% .321

9. GORDON HAYWARD
PER 9.2 / pts 10.2 / rbs 4.4 / ast 2.3 / stl 0.9 / blk 0.7 / fg% .452 / 3p% .434

10. PAUL GEORGE
PER 13.4 / pts 13.7 / rbs 6.6 / ast 1.9 / stl 1.9 / blk 0.8 / fg% .450 / 3p% .270

11. COLE ALDRICH
PER 7.1 / pts 4.6 / rbs 8.9 / ast 1.0 / stl 1.3 / blk 1.8 / fg% .533 / 3p% ---

12. XAVIER HENRY
PER 7.0 / pts 11.3 / rbs 2.5 / ast 1.2 / stl 0.8 / blk 0.2 / fg% .406 / 3p% .118

13. ED DAVIS
PER 15.7 / pts 10.8 / rbs 10.6 / ast 0.8 / stl 0.9 / blk 1.6 / fg% .576 / 3p% ---

14. PATRICK PATTERSON
PER 17.0 / pts 13.5 / rbs 8.7 / ast 1.8 / stl 0.8 / blk 1.6 / fg% .557 / 3p% ---

15. LARRY SANDERS
PER 10.9 / pts 10.8 / rbs 7.3 / ast 0.7 / stl 0.9 / blk 2.9 / fg% .427 / 3p% ---

16. LUKE BABBITT
PER -0.6 / pts 8.3 / rbs 6.5 / ast 0.7 / stl 0.7 / blk 0.4 / fg% .286 / 3p% .091

17. KEVIN SERAPHIN
PER 9.0 / pts 9.3 / rbs 8.7 / ast 0.6 / stl 0.9 / blk 1.7 / fg% .452 / 3p% ---

55. JEREMY EVANS
PER 19.6 / pts 15.2 / rbs 7.7 / ast 1.6 / stl 1.3 / blk 1.4 / fg% .673 / 3p% ---

Now I threw in Evans because I'm Jazz-centric but also to give some perspective to the Per-36 stats. Evans' numbers look great, but they don't take into account he's averaged only 8.7 minutes a game this season. When Evans does enter, he's a burst of energy and scores quickly via alley-oop dunks or mid-range jumpers, but he's often quickly yanked because he's the lightest power forward in the league. I think the most minutes he's ever played in a game was 22.

But it still brings out revealing things when comparing to each other. I remember on draft night, just about every fan in our 1320kfan.com chatroom was upset over the Jazz taking Hayward at #9. There was hope against hope that Jazz brass might be able to swing a trade up, or that Greg Monroe or Al-Farouq Aminu might slip to #9. Most on the blog wanted a big man, as Boozer was leaving, Okur was injured, and no one had any idea of an Al Jefferson trade.

To evalutate the draft, it's best to look at the guys that were drafted after him. I remember more than one guy was clamoring for Luke Babbitt, and had that been the pick, Kevin O'Connor would likely be fired this summer. But I was in the Ed Davis or Cole Aldrich camp. Davis is doing about as well as I thought he would, whereas Aldrich has had a disappointing year. One of the knocks on Patterson was that he's an undersized power forward, and after watching Pau Gasol dwarf Boozer and Millsap in the playoffs, the Jazz did not need any more undersized players.

So plusses for Hayward, he's the best shooter of the 1-2-3's. He's certainly doing better than Henry and Babbitt, whose draft stock at the time were about even with Hayward. And as the Jazz have been getting more and more injuries, Hayward's been getting more time, and his per-game numbers are improving. I think he'll have a solid sophomore year, to the point he'd have a shot making the sophomore squad during the All-Star break.

Thoughts on Jazz loss to Wizards

- Since Feb. 1, the Jazz are 7-19, one of the worst teams in the NBA. Al Jefferson came from Minnesota only to see his new team become just as dysfunctional as his old team.

- John Wall got whatever he wanted in the first half and it didn't matter who guarded him. 24 points in the first half. Jazz played mostly zone in the second half and Wall went scoreless.

- As wounded as the Jazz are, the Wizards are equally injured. They didn't have Blatche or Nick Young or Rashard Lewis and yet they still won. The Jazz have annually been one of the best home-courts in the NBA and they lost to the worst road team in the NBA.

- I was there in the upper bowl cheering my team on, but it wasn't really until the fourth quarter with the line-up of Ronnie Price, CJ Miles, Gordon Hayward, Jeremy Evans and Derrick Favors that the crowd came alive and were on their feet. For the first three quarters we watched a lot of stagnant offense and lapsing defense.

- As much as I appreciate coach Ty Corbin sticking with the youngsters in the fourth, I really wish he'd recognized that after a while Ronnie Price was doing more harm than good. I'm pretty confident that if he'd put Earl Watson back in with five minutes to go in regulation, the Jazz would've won that game.

- They were five seconds away from winning it anyway, but alas, Jordan Crawford's step-back jumper went in.

- CJ Miles is 12% from 3-point land over the past five games.

- I'm convinced the Jazz need to draft a point guard and a wing. They're solid with big men (Jefferson, Favors, Millsap, Okur, and maybe Ante Tomic) but Raja Bell is a black hole of production. He's good enough to be on the court but bad enough to kill your chances of winning. He's at an 8.2 PER right now, one of the least productive starters in the league. They should trade him or buy him out this summer.

- Despite all the woes, the ESA was pretty fully. I'd bet at least 85% of seats sold.

Jazz back to .500

The Jazz started out 27-13 and have since gone 9-23. It's been one of the most unusual team collapses in the NBA in several years. The Jazz are now 11th in the West (they'd be 6th in the East.)

Looking at their remaining schedule, and based on the way they've been playing, the 36-36 Jazz will be lucky to hit 40 wins. So where does this franchise go?

Let's pretend there will be a season next year and explore their options.

Current roster, and how much time's left on their contracts:
PG-Devin Harris - 2 years
PG-Earl Watson - FA
PG-Ronnie Price - FA
SG-Raja Bell - 2 years
SG-CJ Miles - 1 year
SF-Andrei Kirilenko - FA
SF-Gordon Hayward - rookie contract
PF-Paul Millsap - 2 years
PF-Derrick Favors - rookie contract
PF-Jeremy Evans - 1 year
C-Al Jefferson - 2 years
C-Mehmet Okur - 1 year
C-Francisco Elson - FA
C-Kyrylo Fesenko - FA

This is a team that needs to rebuild, and yet they'll want to win while rebuilding. last time this process was quick. When Stockton and Malone left, people looked at the rag-tag roster of Kirilenko, Bell, Matt Harpring, Carlos Arroyo, Mikki Moore, etc., and said the cupboard was bare. And yet Jerry Sloan managed to coach that team to 42-40, barely missing the playoffs. Next year they sign Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur, but a slew of injuries resulted in that team stumbling to 26-56. BUT that allowed them to draft Deron Williams, and two years later they were in the Western Conference Finals.

Sloan is gone, Williams is gone, Boozer is gone. My guess is the rebuilding will take longer. Tyrone Corbin wasn't able to stop the skid when Sloan retired; we'll see how he does when he has time with his team.

First is the draft. They'll likely have the #6 and #12 picks. If they land in the top 3, they should consider PG Kyrie Irving, SF Harrison Barnes or SF Derrick Williams. It's too soon to really know; there's still an NCAA tournament going on and some of the top prospects might stay in college due to the lockout. If they get Irving with their top pick, they should get the best wing available at #12. Conversely, if they get a wing with their first pick, they should see who's left of Brandan Knight, Kemba Walker, Jimmer Fredette and Alec Burks at #12 and pick their favorite.

Next is free agents. I honestly don't see any of them returning. Kirilenko will take the mid-level somewhere else. I also see them seeing if they can work trades to ship out Raja Bell and/or Mehmet Okur. Bell's been a disappointment for his second go-around with the Jazz. He was brought on for veteran leadership and perimter defense, and while he's by all accounts a good voice in the locker room, the Jazz are one of the worst perimeter-defending teams in the league. Sloan should have exchanged Bell for CJ Miles in the starting line-up three month ago, but hindsight's hindsight. Meanwhile Okur was never able to return to a fraction of his former self pre-injury. Okur is in the last year of his deal, so that might be worth something to other teams.

The future is Jefferson, Favors, Miles, Hayward, Millsap, maybe Harris, and their draft picks. Maybe if Sloan was still around I might believe they could pull something off. Now we're entering the wide unknown.

Why Donald Sterling and David Stern Are Scumbags

That's the bottom line here anyway. Makes me side a little bit more with the players, a lot more with coaches.

Depleted Jazz beat Raptors

I wouldn't blame too much on injuries usually, but considering the Jazz were missing Andrei Kirilenko, Paul Millsap, Mehmet Okur, Francisco Elson and Ronnie Price, they've been pretty thin. Tonight was a night for the rookies to show what they can do, and they didn't take full advantage.

Gordon Hayward was pretty good on his man, and he had one great sequence where he blocked a shot, recovered it, then threw an assist to Al Jefferson for an easy lay-in. Otherwise Hayward went scoreless.

Derrick Favors will get there, but tonight wasn't his night. He ended with 3 points.

This was a night where Al Jefferson (34 pts/8 rbs), CJ Miles (23 pts/7 rbs), and Devin Harris (23 pts/5 asts) showed up and few others did. Who was next in scoring? Raja Bell with 5 points.

Jazz win 96-94 with a thrilling tip-in by Big Al at the buzzer. Jazz probably have to go 12-5 to end the season if they want to make the playoffs. Looking at their remaining schedule, I'd say they'd be lucky to go 9-8.