With the Jazz losing six in a row, trade rumors are starting to increase, and they should. The Jazz looked poised to take the #2 seed a week and a half ago, but after losing six games, they find themselves in 7th. If they started the playoffs today, they'd be on the road against the Lakers and they'd get swept again.
Carlos Boozer was criticized for this soft defense when he was here, but rebounding is a big part of defense, and they really miss him in that regard. Al Jefferson may be taller than Boozer and get more blocks, but he's slower, not as good at rebounding, and has yet to look comfortable in the Jazz system. The Jazz offense depends on movement, and Jefferson tends to plant himself in the block and turns to face his opponent once it's thrown to him. When Big Al gets the ball, the offensive flow just dies, and four guys watch to see if Al's going to shoot a jumper or spin in for a push-shot.
The Jazz defense depends a lot on help defense. How many times have we seen a wing get by the guard, only to see the big men down low be too slow to fill the lane and prevent the layup? And there has to be a reason why the Jazz are allowing more offesnive rebounds from their opponents than just about any season in Jerry Sloan's 21 years?
The thinking was that Jefferson was just stuck on a really bad team (the T-Wolves) and on a winning team with an All-Star point guard, he'd blossom into an All-Star himself. It hasn't worked out that way.
The Jazz gave up two draft picks and went deep into the luxury tax to acquire Jefferson, proving they want to win. But since starting 15-5, the Jazz have gone 12-14. They're on pace to fall into the lottery, and if Kevin O'Connor didn't put any protections on either first-rounder he gave away, he may regret it.
Al Jefferson is not the main problemn, but he is the most expensive one. He's signed through the 2012-2013 season, the last year of which he'll make $15 million. You get paid like that, you should be an All-Star.
Then there's Andrei Kirilenko. He was an All-Star once, and he hasn't played like it ever since he got his All-Star payday. He tries, he hustles, but my guess is he leads the team in missed layups. He's in the last year of his deal, owed $17 million. Excellent trade bait, wouldn't you think?
Then there's Raja Bell, a free agent signing. He's up there in age, but in his prime he was a solid outside threat and a great perimeter defender. The thought-process was that since he's been largely injured the past two years, his legs are younger. But a look at his on-floor, off-floor numbers show he's one of the weakest links in the Jazz chain.
The starting lineup is one of the worst in the NBA in efficiency. Deron Williams may be the best point guard in the NBA, but he doesn't have running-slashing-stealing Ronnie Brewer anymore, or most-improved-player candidate Wesley Matthews. He has Raja Bell. Bell is not the defender he used to be, and while his shooting percentages look fine, they don't seem to go down when it matters. Bell's a great voice in the locker room, but it baffles me why he still starts.
Last year's 4/5 pair - Boozer/Okur - complimented each other. Boozer did the work down low while Okur forced one of their bigs out to the perimeter to defend him. If they double-teamed Booz, he could kick out to Okur, or Williams, or anyone moving. Millsap and Jefferson are both around the 16/8 mark - good on paper, right? - but Millsap offensive efficiency increases when Jefferson's off the floor. It's also clear Mehmet Okur is not the player he was before last season's injury.
What kept the Jazz in the division champion spot for so long was their bench. Earl Watson and Ronnie Price bring energy. If Price was an accurate shooter, he'd be an incredible asset. Jeremy Evans, on the rare nights he plays, can rack up points in a hurry with his leaping/dunking skills. Gordon Hayward, who looked like a bust early, has slowly been showing promise.
More on Hayward. The 2010 draft looked like eight players, and then everyone else. Sure Landry Fields and Eric Bledsoe have been better than projected, but really, the Jazz tried to move up in the draft but could find no takers, so of what was left, they took the kid from Butler. At least this kid showed he knew how to win. he still may. He's shown glimpses of craftiness on defense (he has more blocks than I expected) and as he gains confidence, his shot improves. He won't be an All-Star, but he should be a rotation player.
Every time the Jazz lose, the fanbase thinks, "Crap, we're going to lose Deron Williams to free-agency in 2012." D-Will is the best thing to happen to this franchise since the one-two drafting of Stockton and Malone. John & Karl have two NBA Finals appearances. D-Will wants at least the same thing, the chance at championships, and there's no Michael Jordan standing in his way. The Jazz as presently constituted will not get him there.
So I hope the Jazz are looking at trades. I hope Jerry Sloan swaps Raja Bell for CJ Miles in the starting lineup. CJ Miles has improved every year. D-Will is great; he did have 39 points and 9 assists against the best team in the NBA last night. They should be like that 15-5 team at the beginning, not the 12-14 of late.
