Friday, April 29, 2022

Utah Jazz Off-Season Begins


The Utah Jazz finished in first place in 2021, and the general feeling is that if Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell had healthy legs in the post-season, they'd have coasted to the Western Conference Finals, and they would have matched up well with the upstart Phoenix Suns. But Mitchell was hobbled and then Conley got hurt and couldn't do anything in the second round. The Jazz made Terence Mann look like an All-Star, and their defense got routinely exposed when the perimeter guys wouldn't close out, forcing Gobert to repeatedly run out a little too late to cover the corner 3.

Last offseason the Jazz knew they needed to upgrade their bench and their defense. Hassan Whiteside was generally an upgrade over Derrick Favors on the court. He might not have been as consistent or as much a locker-room guy as Favors was, but during the regular season it looked like a good move. Rudy Gay was supposed to be a tougher Georges Niang. Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles were supposed to continue their "Best 6th/7th Men in the League" campaign. The end-of-bench guys like Juwan Morgan were let go.

But the season started rough right off the bat. Rudy Gay's heel was injured and he missed the first chunk of the season. The Jazz had baffling losses to the likes of the Magic and Pacers. Still, they seem poised to be positioning for a top seed when they started 28-10 through the first 40 games. Somewhere in there Danny Ainge was hired, and then everything fell apart.

I don't know how much of it is because of Ainge, if any. But the Jazz go 4-12 in January. Gay has more bad games than good. "Chemistry issue" rumors between Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert haunt them all season. Injuries and "health and safety protocols" mean a lot of guys miss a lot of game sin the middle of the season, but then Joe Ingles, the heart fo the team, goes down with a season-ending injury. Yes, he'd been in trade rumors before that, but now it seems imperative they move him for what they can get if they're going to save the season. In the end, at least for 2022, the additions of Jauncho Hernangomez and Nickeil Alexander-Walker can't fill the void left by Joe. A waived player, Danuel House Jr., winds up being the most meaningful midseason acquisition.

This is also the first year where Quin Synder is under the microscope. Why does he keep sticking with Royce O'Neale, whose defense has slipped? Why do his starters keep having 4th quarter collapses? The Jazz would have been the #1 team in the West if you only counted the first three quarters of all NBA games. Why is the perimeter defense in general so bad? Why doesn't Gobert get passed to more? Why doesn't it look like these guys are having fun?

Favors and Niang and Ingles were all important locker-room guys last year. Who were the bright spirits this year?

Whatever the regular season was, the postseason is all that matters. Almost all of the moves the past year had been made to strengthen their chances in the postseason. Rudy Gay was a DNP. Trent Forrest, the only guard who consistently tries on defense, was out. NAW will get his chance next year but he wasn't ready this year. Whiteside, who'd been good more often than not in the regular season, looks disconnected from the game. The Jazz's #1 offense only manages to score more than 104 points once in the entire series, and that was in a game they lost.

If I knew in advance that the series would go six games, and Dallas's final score in those games would be 93, 110, 126, 99, 102 and 98, I'd say the Jazz won the series. 

For starters, the Mavs roster was more flexible than the Jazz's. Mavs could go five-out, and while Gobert did his ever best to guard the paint but come out when he needed to, too often the Jazz perimeter was turnstile defense. Meanwhile, the Mavs' #1 goal was to guard the 3. Keep shuffling those guards to go inside and worry about the midrange game later. That had been the Jazz philosophy, but their players couldn't execute.

Jazz during regular season
47.1 FG% / 40.3 3PA / 36 3P% / 22.4 APG / 116.2 OffRtg

Jazz during the playoffs
44.3 FG% / 29.8 3PA / 27.4 3P% / 17.2 APG / 108.4 OffRtg

Of the 16 playoff teams, when it came to 3P% and APG, Jazz were dead last.

Things the Jazz really need to examine in the off-season:

QUIN SNYDER - He has been a great coach so far. Eight years ago, he rescued this franchise from the doldrums of the Ty Corbin era. He showed progress every year and right when it looked like the Jazz were ready to truly make an impact, they lost Gordon Hayward to Boston, which threw a wrench into everything. The Jazz happened to be okay because they'd just drafted Donovan Mitchell that summer. Quin's defensive schemes were great with Gobert anchoring and the likes of Ricky Rubio and Jae Crowder on the wings, but they sacrificed defense for offense when they traded for Mike Conley and signed Bojan Bogdanovic.

It really did feel like this team could have been special if Bogdanovic had been able to play in the 2020 postseason. It really did feel like this team could have won a ring in 2021 if Conley and Mitchell hadn't both been hurt toward the end of that season. This season, even if Ingles and Trent Forrest had been healthy, do we really think they would have made the Western Conference Finals?

Is Snyder like a Mark Jackson coach, where he can get you from the lottery to the playoffs, but to get from the playoffs to title contention, you need a Steve Kerr? Something for them to think about.

FRONT OFFICE - Things came to a head between Dennis Lindsey and Quin Snyder last year, and Snyder won. It was made clear Justin Zanik would have more power, even though he'd been GM since 2019, the Jazz's bungling of draft assets needed to be addressed. Why are the Jazz trading up to get Tony Bradley? Why are the Jazz trading back to get Udoka Azubuike and yet not drafting an obvious steal in Desmond Bane? Why are they giving away 2nds for players like Justin Wright-Freeman and Matt Thomas, and why did they give away a 2nd just to unload Rayjon Tucker? And how coincidental is it that the team played .500 ball ever since Ainge arrived?

Ainge has a valuable voice when it comes to top talent. He knew to trade down for Jayson Tatum over Markelle Fultz. He knew what Jaylen Brown was. He knew how to get All-Stars like Kyrie Irving over in Boston, and he knew how to fleece Brooklyn when the KG-Pierce-Allen era was over. Just don't look at any of his draft picks out of the lottery. No need to this summer; the Jazz have no pick in the 2022 draft.

PLAYERS - It's good to have vets on the team, but are Conley and Gay just too old at this point? And how good can your perimeter defense be with two 6'1" guards and a 6'4" power forward as your starters?

Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert were both having career years. Career best for both in most statistical categories. Most of the other players, not so much. Bogdanovic was better in some areas but worse than others. O'Neale had more defensive lapses this year than last year. Conley's lost a step; the end of the 1st quarter burst the Jazz got in 2021 when Conley/Gobert were re-enter the game weren't near as effective in 2022. 

Jazz weren't playing well before Ingles got hurt, but at least he knew how to run a pick and roll with Gobert. Jordan Clarkson had his worst eFG% year yet as a Jazzman, averaging 31.4% from 3, his worst since his rookie year. At least he had a career-best from 2.

The main free agents this summer are Hassan Whiteside, Danuel House Jr., and Eric Paschall. Jazz still have most of the roster under contract next year. If the Jazz still think they have something in Azubuike, do they even bring back Whiteside? Or do they get someone like Greg Monroe who could be the third center behind Dok? It seems like the Jazz would want to bring back House Jr. and Paschall, but they'd need to move some other guys first. Jazz could bring back Trent Forrest, and I would think Quin would want him back, or do they let him go so they can see what they have in Year 2 Jared Butler.

Meanwhile, I think at bare minimum, this needs to be a different starting five next year. Maye it could have been a championship contender starting five in 2021, but it wasn't in 2022 and won't be in 2023. You have to look at age. Conley's 35, Bogey's 33. You have to look at on-court contributions. Of the starters, O'Neale's the only one where the team is about as good when he's on the court vs. when he's off. 

You have the look at the bench. Forrest has limited skills but he's one of the only guys you could say consistently plays hard. He can't hit a 3 to save his life, but he can drive, pass, and defend. Butler had some overdribbling habits he needs to overcome. Jauncho and NAW were midseason acquisitions. Do the Jazz give them a full year in the system, or just see what they can get for them now?

Last off-season it felt like mild upgrades and full health were what was needed. This year, their needs are lot more glaring. If they do decide they have to move one of Mitchell or Gobert, I expect it'd be Gobert who goes. He turns 30 in June, and as much crap as he gets around the league, and even though he's set to make $46 million in 2026, about 20 teams are salivating for his interior defense. Personally I still think Quin, Don, and Rudy can bring a ring to Utah; they just need the right pieces around them. Bigger and better pieces than what they have now.

Friday, April 1, 2022

Utah Jazz On/Off Numbers


This has been a bizarre season. In many ways, the #1 seed from last year was a mirage. They had a perfect regular-season team that vanished once they hit the playoffs, albeit for the second year in a row where crucial contributors were injured. The off-season moves were designed to strength their post-season chances, but we've seen more turbulence this regular season than we have since the pre-Donovan Mitchell days. So what can the on/off numbers tell us?

All numbers are through 3/30.

Utah Jazz (45-31)
OffRtg: 116.1 /  DefRtg: 110.4 / NetRtg: +5.7

They are still #1 in offense and #4 in NetRtg, but they are now down to #12 in defense. Five-game losing streaks will do that to you. I'm doing the players who've played at least 500 total minutes.

Rudy Gobert
On - 116.3 / 107.6 / +8.7
Off - 116.6 / 114.4 / +2.2

Donovan Mitchell
On - 120.0 / 112.9 / +7.1
Off - 111.5 / 108.0 / +3.5

Mike Conley
On - 116.1 / 108.2 / +7.9
Off - 116.8 / 113.7 / +3.1

Bojan Bogdanovic
On - 118.3 / 111.9 / +6.4
Off - 114.2 / 109.5 / +4.7

Royce O'Neale
On - 117.5 / 111.9 / +5.6
Off - 114.7 / 109.1 / +5.6

Joe Ingles
On - 114.0 / 105.9 / +8.1
Off - 117.5 / 113.0 / +4.5

Jordan Clarkson
On - 116.7 / 109.2 / +7.5
Off - 116.2 / 112.7 / +3.5

Hassan Whiteside
On - 122.4 / 112.1 / +10.3
Off - 113.9 / 110.3 / +3.6

Trent Forrest
On - 115.5 / 110.4 / +5.1
Off - 116.7 110.9 / +5.8

Rudy Gay
On - 115.5 / 109.3 / +6.2
Off - 116.8 / 111.4 / +5.4

Eric Paschall
On - 110.9 / 113.0 / -2.1
Off - 117.8 / 110.3 / +7.5

Danuel House Jr
On - 110.5 / 114.2 / -3.7
Jared Butler
On - 112.2 / 118.0 / -5.8
Juancho Hernangomez
On - 112.9 / 121.0 / -8.1
Udoka Azubuike
On - 110.6 / 109.5 / +1.1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
On - 133.6 / 135.9 / -2.3


A few things just from this. The Jazz bench misses Joe Ingles more than we really know. He was one of the leading voices on this team and he could keep the defense together. He was also a key part of the lineup when Conley/Gobert come back in at the end of first and third quarters. Juancho and NAW could be contributors next year, but the time they are getting is due to injuries. I was surprised that Royce O'Neale winds up being a wash.

Be sure to listen to the Jedi & Jerms podcast for more!

Thursday, November 1, 2012

Mavs surprise Lakers in season opener


The Los Angeles Lakers regained their Western Conference swagger in the off-season when they landed Steve Nash and Dwight Howard, but they won't be going 82-0 this year.  At home, they lost to the Dallas Mavericks 99-91, even though the Mavs didn't have Dirk Nowitzki.

Nowitzki and Chris Kaman were both unable to play for Dallas, but the veterans on the team stepped up for a balanced attack.  Six players scored in double figures, led by Darren Collison's 17 points.

The Lakers went 0-7 in preseason, but head coach Mike Brown said he wasn't worried.  Perhaps now he'll adjust that after watching his team fall apart.  He saw how ineffective Steve Nash was without the ball.  He saw Dwight Howard go 3-14 on free throws.  He saw Metta World Peace throw up some of those infamous ill-advised three-point shots.  He was Kobe Bryant go an entire game without a free-throw attempt.  He saw his bench get outscored 37-17.

This was not a game they should have lost.  They had 31 free-throw attempts to the Mavericks' 18. They had a 46-40 rebounding advantage.  They were at home and healthy.

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Utah Jazz Examiner


I have a new position as a Utah Jazz writer for Examiner.com.  It pays a tiny bit, so any Jazz-related news I feel like writing about will go there.

My first article here, on the signing of Randy Foye.

Sunday, July 8, 2012

The NBA Offseason: Cleveland


2012 Picks: (4) Dion Waiters, (17) Tyler Zeller
2011 Picks: (1) Kyrie Irving, (4) Tristan Thompson, (32) Justin Harper

PG - Kyrie Irving, Daniel Gibson
SG - Alonzo Gee, Dion Waiters
SF - Omri Casspi, Luke Harangody, Luke Watson
PF - Tristan Thompson, Samardo Samuels
C - Anderson Varejao, Tyler Zeller

Not much buzz on the free-agent front yet. It makes me wonder if they see this year as another development year, and then they make a splash next year in free agency and shoot for the playoffs.  Cap space is a valuable thing, and they'll be thrilled when Luke Walton's off their books.

Friday, July 6, 2012

The NBA Offseason: Chicago

2012 Picks: (29) Marquis Teague
2011 Picks: (30) Jimmy Butler, (43) Malcolm Lee

PG - Derrick Rose, Kirk Hinrich, Marquis Teague
SG - Richard Hamilton, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver
SF - Luol Deng, Jimmy Butler
PF - Carlos Boozer, Taj Gibson
C - Joakim Noah

It looks doubtful that Chicago will be able to keep Omer Asik. Some of this summer's free-agent signings make you wonder why they had the lockout in the first place, since owners and GMs can't help but throw too much money at free agents.

I haven't heard yet if the Bulls have picked up their options on Brewer or Korver, but I would think at least one of them will be dropped. The like Korver for his ability to spread the floor and make those 3's, but he's a liability on defense. Brewer's one of their better wing defenders, but he can't shoot from outside, and he's a poor free-throw shooter (56% last year). The Bulls are trying to see if they can get Courtney Lee, but with the recent addition of Kirk Hinrich, CJ Watson will likely not be back.

Thursday, July 5, 2012

The NBA Offseason: Charlotte

CHARLOTTE


2012 Picks: (2) Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, (31) Jeffrey Taylor
2011 Picks: (7) Bismack Biyombo, (9) Kemba Walker, (39) Jeremy Tyler

PG - DJ Augustin, Kemba Walker
SG - Ben Gordon, Gerald Henderson, Matt Carroll, Reggie Williams,
SF - Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Derrick Brown, Jeffrey Taylor
PF - Tyrus Thomas
C - Bismack Biyombo, BJ Mullens, DeSagana Diop

After the worst season in NBA history, the Bobcats have some work to do. The bright side for them is they had a good draft and now Walker and Biyombo will have an off-season to improve. The Cats have some room for free-agency moves, and they need another big man, but they'll have a ton of space next year, and with one or two first-round picks next year as well, it seems like 2012 is their year to not be the worst, and then 2013 will be their playoff push.

Sunday, July 1, 2012

The NBA Offseason: Brooklyn

2012 Picks: (41) Tyshawn Taylor, (54) Tornike Shengelia, (57) Ilkan Karaman
2011 Picks: (25) Marshon Brooks, (36) Jordan Williams

PG - Deron Williams, Tyshawn Taylor
SG - Joe Johnson, Marshon Brooks
SF - Gerald Wallace
PF - Kris Humphries, Reggie Evans
C - Brook Lopez

Things are looking up for Jay-Z's team.  Deron Williams signed the big contract, they got Joe Johnson, and now there's still a decent chance they get Dwight Howard, since Dwight's making sure all other teams understand he won't re-sign with them.  They overpaid to keep Wallace, but this roster is already good enough to make the playoffs.

Saturday, June 30, 2012

The NBA Offseason: Boston



2012 Picks: (21) Jared Sullinger, (22) Fab Melo, (51) Kris Joseph
2011 Picks: (27) JaJuan Johnson, (55) Etwaun Moore

PG - Rajon Rondo
SG - Jason Terry, Avery Bradley
SF - Paul Pierce
PF - Kevin Garnett, JaJuan Johnson, Sean Williams, Jared Sullinger
C - Brandon Bass, Fab Melo, Greg Stiemsma

I'd be surprised if Kris Joseph didn't make the team, simply because they need to fill their roster. The Celtics have some room to go after some free agents. I'm assuming they keep Brandon Bass and maybe give Jeff Green another look, but they need a couple more guards.  Jason Terry's a good replacement for Ray Allen.

With Kevin Garnett returning, Danny Ainge has sent a signal he's not ready to blow this thing up; he just need to find the right help for his new Big 3 of KG, Pierce and Rondo.  KG, meanwhile, can mentor all the young bigs they have and see if any of them turn out to be special.