The playoff teams
16. INDIANA (37-45) - The disparity between East and West will continue. I don't see Indiana doing much better next year, but it'll still be enough to make the playoffs. They made an interesting trade for George Hill to boost the back-court with Darren Collison.
15. PHILADELPHIA (41-41) - I don't envy their salary situation, but at least they believe in themselves again. I'd be surprised if Elton Brand and Andre Iguodala both stay with the team all year. They hope Evan Turner lives up to his draft status and Thaddeus Young continues to improve.
14. HOUSTON (43-39) - With the Yao Ming era officially over, the Rockets need a new center, but they seem pretty comfortable at power forward. Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson, now Marcus Morris and Donatas Moteijunas. Jonny Flynn gets a second chance to play back-up, now to Kyle Lowry. Kevin McHale should continue positively what Rick Adelman had going.
13. NEW YORK (42-40) - I'm surprised the Knicks kept Billups another year. Can't underestimate veteran leadership, though you can overpay for it. They have Chauncey, Melo, Amare, Toney Douglas, Landry Fields... and that's it. Can't do much in free agency when they already have $60 million committed and the salary cap coming down. But... big stars can overcome a lot and so I see
the Knicks returning to a first-round exit.
12. PORTLAND (48-34) - Brandon Roy and Andre Miller never really meshed, but now Andre's gone and Brandon's a shell of himself. Now it's the LaMarcus Aldridge-Wesley Matthews-Gerald Wallace-Nicolas Batum show. Raymond Felton should take the year to make Charlotte,New York and Denver regret passing on him.
11. ORLANDO (52-30) - Dwight Howard could be the league MVP if he had a better team. Last year's mid-season trade made them worse, and if Dwight leaves, Orlando could easily become the wreckage site that Cleveland and Toronto became last year. Gilbert Arenas's contract prevents them from being able to do much. The Magic have to ask themselves: do they want to have the future of the Nuggets and Jazz, or the Cavaliers and Raptors?
10. MEMPHIS (46-36) - This team has a lot of questions. Will Zack Randolph, Marc Gasol and Rudy Gay all be back? Will OJ Mayo be traded? Now that they've tasted winning, I expect them to continue, after some answers.
9. ATLANTA (44-38) - Kirk Hinrich has a chance to be the starting point guard again, and I expect the team to remain steady, but their cap situation is atrocious. Joe Johnson, Josh Smith and Al Horford alone with make over $42 million next year.
8. DENVER (50-32) - Usually when a superstar gets traded away, the team that loses the superstar loses. Not so in Denver's case. They're now brimming with affordable talent. I expect them to try to get Nene back, but they're adding Kenneth Faried and Jordan Hamilton to a team that already has Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler (maybe), Ty Lawson and Arron Afflalo.
7. BOSTON (56-26) - Salary-wise they're handcuffed this year, and the cupboard's looking bare behind the Big 4. Hard to question the heart of champions, but can KG, Allen, Pierce and Rondo rally past the Heat or the Bulls in the playoffs? They traded away Kendrick Perkins for Jeff Green who so far hasn't justified it, and they could lose him anyway. Glen Davis might not be back either. They need Jermaine O'Neal to reach way down and become his 2005 self. Rookie JaJuan Johnson will get hsi chances.
6. SAN ANTONIO (61-21) - Somehow they were the best in the west, but they crashed and burned against the Grizzlies. Sure, the match-ups were a problem, but they never should have doubled-down on Richard Jefferson. But the rich get richer: they got Kawhi Leonard for George Hill. Wouldn't surprise me if the ever-slower Tim Duncan retires after this year.
5. L.A. LAKERS (57-25) - It was glorious to watch the Lakers implode against the Mavericks, but it was the Conference finals; it wasn't like a first-round embarrassment. With Mike Brown in and Phil Jackson out, I can see the egos rising. Ultimately though, somethng will happen. Wouldn't surprise me to see the Lakers trade Odom & Bynum for Dwight Howard.
4. CHICAGO (62-20) - Derrick Rose may have been the MVP, but he can't do it alone. The Bulls will desperately try to move Boozer or Deng to get that elusive magical all-purpose two-guard. They should still be great, but somewhere int he playoofs, probably the EC finals again, they'll fold.
3. DALLAS (57-25) - I'm happy for Dirk Nowitzki and Mark Cuban, and they should be really good again, but I don't see them repeating.
2. OKLAHOMA CITY (55-27) - I expect this to be the year the team makes their move and goes to the NBA Finals. Durant is the Tim Duncan for the new decade, humility-wise.
1. MIAMI (58-24) - Okay, they got embarrassed in the Finals, but I expect LeBron, Wade and Bosh to be surrounded by a better team next time around.
Sunday, July 31, 2011
NBA Off-Season Power Rankings I
Off Season Power Rankings
Assuming we get a full NBA season. I'm an optimist.
Here are the likely lottery teams, with their 2010-2011 records.
30. TORONTO (22-60) - They lost Chris Bosh and got nothing for him. They had the third worst record last year. They overpaid for the services of Amir Johnson. Their first-round draft pick probably won't come over for a year or two, so for now their hopes rest in hoping Ed Davis shows significant improvement his sophomore year. I don't see any reason why they can expect to win more games next year than last year. If Jose Calderon and Andrea Bargnani are your two best players, you are a lottery team.
29. MINNESOTA (17-65) - They finally got rid of Kurt Rambis, but really, could any coach succeed under Kahn? We'll see. Ricky Rubio hasn't been impressive in Europe, so I doubt he's going to be the savior they hope he can be. But they do have a decent young core. Now if they can swing a decent trade involving Michael Beasley, they'll have Rubio, Wes Johnson, Derrick Williams and Kevin Love who can grow together.
28. CLEVELAND (19-63) - They still have some bloated veteran contracts (Antawn Jamison, Baron Davis) but there's reason to hope again in LeBron's old town. Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson should be a solid one-two injection of life and excitement. That'll fade by January when they're .333, but at least they'll feel like they're only a year away from the playoffs.
27. NEW JERSEY (24-58) - They have Deron Williams, one of the best point guards in the league. Then what? They might not get Kris Humphries back, they have Travis Outlaw stealing for them through 2014, they don't have a lot of tradeable assets, and unless they can land a big free agent this summer, D-Will will walk next year. Brook Lopez hasn't hit his ceiling, but one would hope he becomes a better rebounder.
26. DETROIT (30-52) - There is reason to hope now that Lawrence Frank is there. He should have more credibility with this squad, which openly revolted against their coach last year. Still, they're not going anywhere, and Rip Hamilton knows it. Between him, Ben Gordon and Charlie Villenueva, they're not getting their money's worth. But they do have Greg Monroe, they now have Brandan Knight to learn from and likely replace Rodney Stuckey, and if they can reboot with a big trade this season, more power to them. They need it.
25. WASHINGTON (23-59) - Jan Vesely's supposed to be a great dunker, but I'm not fully sold on this Euro. I still see John Wall trying to be the next Derrick Rose and trying to do too much. Hopefully they can keep Nick Young, and Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee continue to improve. They'll get what they can out of Rashard Lewis, and I do see them improving slightly over last year, but playoffs? No.
24. GOLDEN STATE (36-46) - I see them being a little worse this year. Why? Their new head coach has no coaching experience. Mark Jackson's a smart guy, but he's too big a question mark. Steph Curry, Monta Ellis and David Lee sounds like a solid enough group, and maybe Klay Thompson will live up to his hyped shooting ability, but where's the defense going to come from?
23. SACRAMENTO (24-58) - The Kings should be on national TV the first week. Maybe they are, I haven't looked, but the Jimmer has injected life into a great basketball city that hasn't had much reason to cheer lately. I hope they do well, and I hope they start selling out games again. I see the West as too tough for them to get back to the playoffs this year. I think they're going to regret taking back John Salmons. But just watching Jimmer, Tyreke and DeMarcus on the floor at the same time will be worth tuning in for whenever we get to see them.
22. CHARLOTTE (34-48) - By trading away Stephen Jackson, they went into reboot mode, and by drafting Kemba Walker, they're sending a signal to DJ Augustin. They overpaid for Tyrus Thomas and they still have some other undesirable contracts (why did Boris Diaw making so much again?), and this is a franchise that has a history of underperforming.
21. L.A. CLIPPERS (32-50) - Yes, Blake Griffin is awesome, but they're the Clippers. Maybe a full year of having Mo Williams and Eric Gordon on the perimeter will give Blake more space. Maybe they'll make a valuable trade for Chris Kaman. Has to hurt they lost out on Kyrie Irving just to get rid of Baron Davis.
20. MILWAUKEE (35-47) - I think they got the better deal in the Sacramento trade, but it's up in the air if a full season of Brandon Jennings, Stephen Jackson and Andrew Bogut will get you back in the playoffs.
19. PHOENIX (40-42) - Jason Richardson, Grant Hill and Vince Carter are gone, and Steve Nash has one more year, but really this team is going nowhere. Josh Childress was a disappointment. Aaron Brooks, Marcin Gortat and Robin Lopez are good pieces, but this franchise needs a good free agent signing to have a prayer at the playoffs. And even then they'd be an easy first-round exit. They traded several draft picks over the years so saving money and now they're paying for not growing their own stars. It's also curious they went with Markieff Morris when Marcus Morris and Kawhi Leonard were still available.
18. NEW ORLEANS (46-36) - I put them here because the Sword of Damocles is going to hang over them all season. They probably won't get David West back and if he doesn't get injured, they'll probably trade Chris Paul. I therefore see this team imploding.
17. UTAH (39-43) - Sure they would have made the playoffs if they were in the East, but 1.) they're not, and 2.) they had a winning record before Jerry Sloan retired and Deron Williams was traded. The team fell apart a bit there in the end. Now this season they hope Devin Harris stays healthy, and their lottery-pick rookies (Enes Kanter, Alec Burks) and sophomores (Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward) pan out. Free agents Andrei Kirilenko, Kyrylo Fesenko and Francisco Elson won't be back, but they still have a logjam of big men with Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap and Mehmet Okur there. They might do a medical buyout of Okur, or more likely, use him as trade bait. Power forwards Millsap and Jeremy Evans will try some time at the 3 spot, but this will CJ Miles make-or-break year to prove he's a starter. With Miles and Raja Bell playing erratically on offense, they could really use another shooter. Plenty of questions surround this team. Do they trade Jefferson or Millsap as well to get Favors and Kanter more minutes? Can Corbin coach with an offseason under this belt? How will team chemistry be? My bet is they end up around 44-38 and miss the playoffs.
Assuming we get a full NBA season. I'm an optimist.
Here are the likely lottery teams, with their 2010-2011 records.
30. TORONTO (22-60) - They lost Chris Bosh and got nothing for him. They had the third worst record last year. They overpaid for the services of Amir Johnson. Their first-round draft pick probably won't come over for a year or two, so for now their hopes rest in hoping Ed Davis shows significant improvement his sophomore year. I don't see any reason why they can expect to win more games next year than last year. If Jose Calderon and Andrea Bargnani are your two best players, you are a lottery team.
29. MINNESOTA (17-65) - They finally got rid of Kurt Rambis, but really, could any coach succeed under Kahn? We'll see. Ricky Rubio hasn't been impressive in Europe, so I doubt he's going to be the savior they hope he can be. But they do have a decent young core. Now if they can swing a decent trade involving Michael Beasley, they'll have Rubio, Wes Johnson, Derrick Williams and Kevin Love who can grow together.
28. CLEVELAND (19-63) - They still have some bloated veteran contracts (Antawn Jamison, Baron Davis) but there's reason to hope again in LeBron's old town. Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson should be a solid one-two injection of life and excitement. That'll fade by January when they're .333, but at least they'll feel like they're only a year away from the playoffs.
27. NEW JERSEY (24-58) - They have Deron Williams, one of the best point guards in the league. Then what? They might not get Kris Humphries back, they have Travis Outlaw stealing for them through 2014, they don't have a lot of tradeable assets, and unless they can land a big free agent this summer, D-Will will walk next year. Brook Lopez hasn't hit his ceiling, but one would hope he becomes a better rebounder.
26. DETROIT (30-52) - There is reason to hope now that Lawrence Frank is there. He should have more credibility with this squad, which openly revolted against their coach last year. Still, they're not going anywhere, and Rip Hamilton knows it. Between him, Ben Gordon and Charlie Villenueva, they're not getting their money's worth. But they do have Greg Monroe, they now have Brandan Knight to learn from and likely replace Rodney Stuckey, and if they can reboot with a big trade this season, more power to them. They need it.
25. WASHINGTON (23-59) - Jan Vesely's supposed to be a great dunker, but I'm not fully sold on this Euro. I still see John Wall trying to be the next Derrick Rose and trying to do too much. Hopefully they can keep Nick Young, and Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee continue to improve. They'll get what they can out of Rashard Lewis, and I do see them improving slightly over last year, but playoffs? No.
24. GOLDEN STATE (36-46) - I see them being a little worse this year. Why? Their new head coach has no coaching experience. Mark Jackson's a smart guy, but he's too big a question mark. Steph Curry, Monta Ellis and David Lee sounds like a solid enough group, and maybe Klay Thompson will live up to his hyped shooting ability, but where's the defense going to come from?
23. SACRAMENTO (24-58) - The Kings should be on national TV the first week. Maybe they are, I haven't looked, but the Jimmer has injected life into a great basketball city that hasn't had much reason to cheer lately. I hope they do well, and I hope they start selling out games again. I see the West as too tough for them to get back to the playoffs this year. I think they're going to regret taking back John Salmons. But just watching Jimmer, Tyreke and DeMarcus on the floor at the same time will be worth tuning in for whenever we get to see them.
22. CHARLOTTE (34-48) - By trading away Stephen Jackson, they went into reboot mode, and by drafting Kemba Walker, they're sending a signal to DJ Augustin. They overpaid for Tyrus Thomas and they still have some other undesirable contracts (why did Boris Diaw making so much again?), and this is a franchise that has a history of underperforming.
21. L.A. CLIPPERS (32-50) - Yes, Blake Griffin is awesome, but they're the Clippers. Maybe a full year of having Mo Williams and Eric Gordon on the perimeter will give Blake more space. Maybe they'll make a valuable trade for Chris Kaman. Has to hurt they lost out on Kyrie Irving just to get rid of Baron Davis.
20. MILWAUKEE (35-47) - I think they got the better deal in the Sacramento trade, but it's up in the air if a full season of Brandon Jennings, Stephen Jackson and Andrew Bogut will get you back in the playoffs.
19. PHOENIX (40-42) - Jason Richardson, Grant Hill and Vince Carter are gone, and Steve Nash has one more year, but really this team is going nowhere. Josh Childress was a disappointment. Aaron Brooks, Marcin Gortat and Robin Lopez are good pieces, but this franchise needs a good free agent signing to have a prayer at the playoffs. And even then they'd be an easy first-round exit. They traded several draft picks over the years so saving money and now they're paying for not growing their own stars. It's also curious they went with Markieff Morris when Marcus Morris and Kawhi Leonard were still available.
18. NEW ORLEANS (46-36) - I put them here because the Sword of Damocles is going to hang over them all season. They probably won't get David West back and if he doesn't get injured, they'll probably trade Chris Paul. I therefore see this team imploding.
17. UTAH (39-43) - Sure they would have made the playoffs if they were in the East, but 1.) they're not, and 2.) they had a winning record before Jerry Sloan retired and Deron Williams was traded. The team fell apart a bit there in the end. Now this season they hope Devin Harris stays healthy, and their lottery-pick rookies (Enes Kanter, Alec Burks) and sophomores (Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward) pan out. Free agents Andrei Kirilenko, Kyrylo Fesenko and Francisco Elson won't be back, but they still have a logjam of big men with Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap and Mehmet Okur there. They might do a medical buyout of Okur, or more likely, use him as trade bait. Power forwards Millsap and Jeremy Evans will try some time at the 3 spot, but this will CJ Miles make-or-break year to prove he's a starter. With Miles and Raja Bell playing erratically on offense, they could really use another shooter. Plenty of questions surround this team. Do they trade Jefferson or Millsap as well to get Favors and Kanter more minutes? Can Corbin coach with an offseason under this belt? How will team chemistry be? My bet is they end up around 44-38 and miss the playoffs.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Whose NBA contract would they cut?
Fox Sports asks the question: if owners of NBA teams were allowed to get rid of one contract on their team, who would they pick? These were their answers:
Player - Team - $ in million owed / how many year left on deal
Atlanta - Joe Johnson - $107 / 5
Boston - Jermaine O'Neal - $6.2 / 1
Charlotte - Tyrus Thomas - $33 / 4
Chicago - Carlos Boozer - $60.6 / 4
Cleveland - Baron Davis - $28.8 / 2
Dallas - Brendan Haywood - $34.9 / 4
Denver - Al Harrington - $27.5 / 4
Detroit - Rip Hamilton - $25.2 / 2
Golden State - Andris Biedrins - $27 / 3
Houston - Hasheem Thabeet - $5.1 / 1
Indiana - James Posey - $6.9 / 1
LA Clippers - Chris Kaman - $12.2 / 1
LA Lakers - Luke Walton - $11.8 / 2
Memphis - Rudy Gay - $68.3 / 4
Miami - Mike Miller - $24 / 4
Milwaukee - Drew Gooden - $24.3 / 4
Minnesota - Nikola Pekovic - $9 / 2
New Jersey - Travis Outlaw - $28 / 4
New Orleans - Emeka Okafor - $40.6 / 3
New York - Renaldo Balkman - $3.4 / 2
OKC - Kendrick Perkins - $32.6 / 4
Orlando - Gilbert Arenas - $62.4 / 3
Philadelphia - Elton Brand - $35.2 / 2
Phoenix - Josh Childress - $27 / 4
Portland - Brandon Roy - $49.1 / 3
Sacramento - Francisco Garcia - $11.9 / 2
San Antonio - Richard Jefferson - $30.5 / 3
Toronto - Amir Johnson - $25 / 4
Utah - Mehmet Okur - $10.9 / 1
Washington - Rashard Lewis - $45.9 / 2
Can't say I disagree with any. As far as the Jazz go, Okur is at best a trade piece. In fact, I think most Jazz fans would rather trade Raja Bell, a fan favorite during his first stint here, but since the big re-signing, he proved to be the one guy that dragged down the rest of the starting line-up, and that would give more time to rookie Alec Burks, sophomore Gordon Hayward and CJ Miles.
I asked one local radio producer, and he said Al Jefferson. Big Al may have been their leading scorer, rebounder, and shot-blocker last year, but the Jazz are a lottery team, and they have Favors and Kanter now. Al has two years and $29 million left on his deal.
Player - Team - $ in million owed / how many year left on deal
Atlanta - Joe Johnson - $107 / 5
Boston - Jermaine O'Neal - $6.2 / 1
Charlotte - Tyrus Thomas - $33 / 4
Chicago - Carlos Boozer - $60.6 / 4
Cleveland - Baron Davis - $28.8 / 2
Dallas - Brendan Haywood - $34.9 / 4
Denver - Al Harrington - $27.5 / 4
Detroit - Rip Hamilton - $25.2 / 2
Golden State - Andris Biedrins - $27 / 3
Houston - Hasheem Thabeet - $5.1 / 1
Indiana - James Posey - $6.9 / 1
LA Clippers - Chris Kaman - $12.2 / 1
LA Lakers - Luke Walton - $11.8 / 2
Memphis - Rudy Gay - $68.3 / 4
Miami - Mike Miller - $24 / 4
Milwaukee - Drew Gooden - $24.3 / 4
Minnesota - Nikola Pekovic - $9 / 2
New Jersey - Travis Outlaw - $28 / 4
New Orleans - Emeka Okafor - $40.6 / 3
New York - Renaldo Balkman - $3.4 / 2
OKC - Kendrick Perkins - $32.6 / 4
Orlando - Gilbert Arenas - $62.4 / 3
Philadelphia - Elton Brand - $35.2 / 2
Phoenix - Josh Childress - $27 / 4
Portland - Brandon Roy - $49.1 / 3
Sacramento - Francisco Garcia - $11.9 / 2
San Antonio - Richard Jefferson - $30.5 / 3
Toronto - Amir Johnson - $25 / 4
Utah - Mehmet Okur - $10.9 / 1
Washington - Rashard Lewis - $45.9 / 2
Can't say I disagree with any. As far as the Jazz go, Okur is at best a trade piece. In fact, I think most Jazz fans would rather trade Raja Bell, a fan favorite during his first stint here, but since the big re-signing, he proved to be the one guy that dragged down the rest of the starting line-up, and that would give more time to rookie Alec Burks, sophomore Gordon Hayward and CJ Miles.
I asked one local radio producer, and he said Al Jefferson. Big Al may have been their leading scorer, rebounder, and shot-blocker last year, but the Jazz are a lottery team, and they have Favors and Kanter now. Al has two years and $29 million left on his deal.
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