Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Heat beat Mavericks in Game 1

Some thoughts on Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

- Great defense from both teams. The coaching staffs did their homework and then some on each other.

- Heat outrebounded Mavs 46-36. I think that was as big a factor as anything.

- Dallas needs more from their bench. They can't afford to have Jason Terry, JJ Barea, Peja Stoyakovic and Brendan Haywood go 4-22 shooting. By comparison, the Heat bench was 8-22. Again, good defensive night, but Dallas's bench is more important than Miami's bench.

- Dirk did everything he could. He was relentless in attacking the rim, and Dallas overall had the free-throw-attempt advantage. Shawn Marion was good too, but Dirk needs more help.

- I don't know why Mike Bibby starts. He should be a DNP-CD. Just start Mario Chalmers and be done with it.

- Udonis Haslem is a glue guy that was key tonight.

- Game 2 will really test Rick Carlisle's mettle as a coach. If he can make the adjustments and steal one on the road, he's a stud.

- I'm rooting for the Mavericks. For the past 27-ish years, only seven teams have won the NBA Finals. Which is just one reason why the NFL is better than the NBA. If you're not a fan of the Lakers, Celtics, Bulls, Spurs, Rockets, Pistons or Heat, why watch the NBA? I'd like someone else to break through, and the Dallas Mavericks have Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion, Tyson Chandler, Peja Stoyakovic, i.e., hard-working veterans who've earned their places in the NBA.

- Since Michael Jordan retired from the Bulls in 1998, only two teams have won the NBA Finals without Shaq, Kobe or Tim Duncan. (The 2004 Pistons and the 2008 Celtics). And both of those times, Kobe was on the other team in the Finals. If the Heat win, you can swap Shaq for D-Wade and that statement will still be true.

- The Heat are going to dominate the NBA for the next five years. Ring-hungry vets are going to fight to get on to the Heat bench every year.

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Utah Jazz land #3 pick

I'm thrilled. Sure, landing #1 or #2 would have been more thrilling, but I'm relieved they got this pick. My hunch is they use it on Brandan Knight, unless someone else really impresses them in the next month, or David Kahn of Minnesota (with #2 pick) gambles ahead of them for Knight, and the Jazz have Derrick Williams fall to them.

With Knight at #3, my guess is they hope Jan Vesely or Alec Burks or Bismack Biyombo or Kawhi Leonard is still there at #12. I could also see them packing #12 in a draft-day trade.

Hours before the Ping-Pong Balls Bounce

The Utah Jazz have never won the NBA draft lottery. Granted, they're rarely there, but the last time they were in the top four, they fell to #6. They made some deals, though, to move u to #3 and were able to pick Deron Williams, who in two years had the team in the Western Conference Finals.

Williams is gone, and the Jazz got for him Devin Harris, last year's #3 Derrick Favors, this year's #6 (if nothing changes), and next year's Golden State pick Top-7 protected.

Now next year's draft looks like it will be one of the deepest in history so even if the Jazz wind up around #11 with that pick, they can still get a potential All-Star out of there. This year, however, is projected to be the weakest in a decade, and if the Jazz don't land in the top 2, I think the best they'll get are two role-players.

Now there are always surprise players who fall to late first-round or second-round who become stars, but history bears out that the lower the pick, the greater the odds the player won't pan out. And even then, the #1 pick has included players like Kwame Brown and Michael Olowokandi, the #2 pick has included Darko Milicic and Marvin Williams, etc.


I do think Kyrie Irving (PG) and Derrick Williams (SF/PF) will be legitimate stars in this league. I think Brandan Knight will be a top-ten point guard. Everyone else in this draft to me is a question mark.

So if the Jazz wind up staying at #6 and #12 (or worse, #7 and #12), then luck's going to have to be a major lady. Is it possible for a franchise-changer in this weak draft to wind up there? Sure. Is it likely? No. And without a returning All-Star on the team and a Hall of Fame coach walking the sidelines, there's also no guarantee the Jazz won't be back for many years to come.