Thursday, March 24, 2011

Jazz back to .500

The Jazz started out 27-13 and have since gone 9-23. It's been one of the most unusual team collapses in the NBA in several years. The Jazz are now 11th in the West (they'd be 6th in the East.)

Looking at their remaining schedule, and based on the way they've been playing, the 36-36 Jazz will be lucky to hit 40 wins. So where does this franchise go?

Let's pretend there will be a season next year and explore their options.

Current roster, and how much time's left on their contracts:
PG-Devin Harris - 2 years
PG-Earl Watson - FA
PG-Ronnie Price - FA
SG-Raja Bell - 2 years
SG-CJ Miles - 1 year
SF-Andrei Kirilenko - FA
SF-Gordon Hayward - rookie contract
PF-Paul Millsap - 2 years
PF-Derrick Favors - rookie contract
PF-Jeremy Evans - 1 year
C-Al Jefferson - 2 years
C-Mehmet Okur - 1 year
C-Francisco Elson - FA
C-Kyrylo Fesenko - FA

This is a team that needs to rebuild, and yet they'll want to win while rebuilding. last time this process was quick. When Stockton and Malone left, people looked at the rag-tag roster of Kirilenko, Bell, Matt Harpring, Carlos Arroyo, Mikki Moore, etc., and said the cupboard was bare. And yet Jerry Sloan managed to coach that team to 42-40, barely missing the playoffs. Next year they sign Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur, but a slew of injuries resulted in that team stumbling to 26-56. BUT that allowed them to draft Deron Williams, and two years later they were in the Western Conference Finals.

Sloan is gone, Williams is gone, Boozer is gone. My guess is the rebuilding will take longer. Tyrone Corbin wasn't able to stop the skid when Sloan retired; we'll see how he does when he has time with his team.

First is the draft. They'll likely have the #6 and #12 picks. If they land in the top 3, they should consider PG Kyrie Irving, SF Harrison Barnes or SF Derrick Williams. It's too soon to really know; there's still an NCAA tournament going on and some of the top prospects might stay in college due to the lockout. If they get Irving with their top pick, they should get the best wing available at #12. Conversely, if they get a wing with their first pick, they should see who's left of Brandan Knight, Kemba Walker, Jimmer Fredette and Alec Burks at #12 and pick their favorite.

Next is free agents. I honestly don't see any of them returning. Kirilenko will take the mid-level somewhere else. I also see them seeing if they can work trades to ship out Raja Bell and/or Mehmet Okur. Bell's been a disappointment for his second go-around with the Jazz. He was brought on for veteran leadership and perimter defense, and while he's by all accounts a good voice in the locker room, the Jazz are one of the worst perimeter-defending teams in the league. Sloan should have exchanged Bell for CJ Miles in the starting line-up three month ago, but hindsight's hindsight. Meanwhile Okur was never able to return to a fraction of his former self pre-injury. Okur is in the last year of his deal, so that might be worth something to other teams.

The future is Jefferson, Favors, Miles, Hayward, Millsap, maybe Harris, and their draft picks. Maybe if Sloan was still around I might believe they could pull something off. Now we're entering the wide unknown.

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