Utah Jazz Off-Season Begins

The Utah Jazz finished in first place in 2021, and the general feeling is that if Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell had healthy legs in the post-season, they'd have coasted to the Western Conference Finals, and they would have matched up well with the upstart Phoenix Suns. But Mitchell was hobbled and then Conley got hurt and couldn't do anything in the second round. The Jazz made Terence Mann look like an All-Star, and their defense got routinely exposed when the perimeter guys wouldn't close out, forcing Gobert to repeatedly run out a little too late to cover the corner 3.

Last offseason the Jazz knew they needed to upgrade their bench and their defense. Hassan Whiteside was generally an upgrade over Derrick Favors on the court. He might not have been as consistent or as much a locker-room guy as Favors was, but during the regular season it looked like a good move. Rudy Gay was supposed to be a tougher Georges Niang. Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles were supposed to continue their "Best 6th/7th Men in the League" campaign. The end-of-bench guys like Juwan Morgan were let go.

But the season started rough right off the bat. Rudy Gay's heel was injured and he missed the first chunk of the season. The Jazz had baffling losses to the likes of the Magic and Pacers. Still, they seem poised to be positioning for a top seed when they started 28-10 through the first 40 games. Somewhere in there Danny Ainge was hired, and then everything fell apart.

I don't know how much of it is because of Ainge, if any. But the Jazz go 4-12 in January. Gay has more bad games than good. "Chemistry issue" rumors between Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert haunt them all season. Injuries and "health and safety protocols" mean a lot of guys miss a lot of game sin the middle of the season, but then Joe Ingles, the heart fo the team, goes down with a season-ending injury. Yes, he'd been in trade rumors before that, but now it seems imperative they move him for what they can get if they're going to save the season. In the end, at least for 2022, the additions of Jauncho Hernangomez and Nickeil Alexander-Walker can't fill the void left by Joe. A waived player, Danuel House Jr., winds up being the most meaningful midseason acquisition.

This is also the first year where Quin Synder is under the microscope. Why does he keep sticking with Royce O'Neale, whose defense has slipped? Why do his starters keep having 4th quarter collapses? The Jazz would have been the #1 team in the West if you only counted the first three quarters of all NBA games. Why is the perimeter defense in general so bad? Why doesn't Gobert get passed to more? Why doesn't it look like these guys are having fun?

Favors and Niang and Ingles were all important locker-room guys last year. Who were the bright spirits this year?

Whatever the regular season was, the postseason is all that matters. Almost all of the moves the past year had been made to strengthen their chances in the postseason. Rudy Gay was a DNP. Trent Forrest, the only guard who consistently tries on defense, was out. NAW will get his chance next year but he wasn't ready this year. Whiteside, who'd been good more often than not in the regular season, looks disconnected from the game. The Jazz's #1 offense only manages to score more than 104 points once in the entire series, and that was in a game they lost.

If I knew in advance that the series would go six games, and Dallas's final score in those games would be 93, 110, 126, 99, 102 and 98, I'd say the Jazz won the series. 

For starters, the Mavs roster was more flexible than the Jazz's. Mavs could go five-out, and while Gobert did his ever best to guard the paint but come out when he needed to, too often the Jazz perimeter was turnstile defense. Meanwhile, the Mavs' #1 goal was to guard the 3. Keep shuffling those guards to go inside and worry about the midrange game later. That had been the Jazz philosophy, but their players couldn't execute.

Jazz during regular season

47.1 FG% / 40.3 3PA / 36 3P% / 22.4 APG / 116.2 OffRtg

Jazz during the playoffs

44.3 FG% / 29.8 3PA / 27.4 3P% / 17.2 APG / 108.4 OffRtg

Of the 16 playoff teams, when it came to 3P% and APG, Jazz were dead last.

Things the Jazz really need to examine in the off-season:

QUIN SNYDER - He has been a great coach so far. Eight years ago, he rescued this franchise from the doldrums of the Ty Corbin era. He showed progress every year and right when it looked like the Jazz were ready to truly make an impact, they lost Gordon Hayward to Boston, which threw a wrench into everything. The Jazz happened to be okay because they'd just drafted Donovan Mitchell that summer. Quin's defensive schemes were great with Gobert anchoring and the likes of Ricky Rubio and Jae Crowder on the wings, but they sacrificed defense for offense when they traded for Mike Conley and signed Bojan Bogdanovic.

It really did feel like this team could have been special if Bogdanovic had been able to play in the 2020 postseason. It really did feel like this team could have won a ring in 2021 if Conley and Mitchell hadn't both been hurt toward the end of that season. This season, even if Ingles and Trent Forrest had been healthy, do we really think they would have made the Western Conference Finals?

Is Snyder like a Mark Jackson coach, where he can get you from the lottery to the playoffs, but to get from the playoffs to title contention, you need a Steve Kerr? Something for them to think about.

FRONT OFFICE - Things came to a head between Dennis Lindsey and Quin Snyder last year, and Snyder won. It was made clear Justin Zanik would have more power, even though he'd been GM since 2019, the Jazz's bungling of draft assets needed to be addressed. Why are the Jazz trading up to get Tony Bradley? Why are the Jazz trading back to get Udoka Azubuike and yet not drafting an obvious steal in Desmond Bane? Why are they giving away 2nds for players like Justin Wright-Freeman and Matt Thomas, and why did they give away a 2nd just to unload Rayjon Tucker? And how coincidental is it that the team played .500 ball ever since Ainge arrived?

Ainge has a valuable voice when it comes to top talent. He knew to trade down for Jayson Tatum over Markelle Fultz. He knew what Jaylen Brown was. He knew how to get All-Stars like Kyrie Irving over in Boston, and he knew how to fleece Brooklyn when the KG-Pierce-Allen era was over. Just don't look at any of his draft picks out of the lottery. No need to this summer; the Jazz have no pick in the 2022 draft.

PLAYERS - It's good to have vets on the team, but are Conley and Gay just too old at this point? And how good can your perimeter defense be with two 6'1" guards and a 6'4" power forward as your starters?

Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert were both having career years. Career best for both in most statistical categories. Most of the other players, not so much. Bogdanovic was better in some areas but worse than others. O'Neale had more defensive lapses this year than last year. Conley's lost a step; the end of the 1st quarter burst the Jazz got in 2021 when Conley/Gobert were re-enter the game weren't near as effective in 2022. 

Jazz weren't playing well before Ingles got hurt, but at least he knew how to run a pick and roll with Gobert. Jordan Clarkson had his worst eFG% year yet as a Jazzman, averaging 31.4% from 3, his worst since his rookie year. At least he had a career-best from 2.

The main free agents this summer are Hassan Whiteside, Danuel House Jr., and Eric Paschall. Jazz still have most of the roster under contract next year. If the Jazz still think they have something in Azubuike, do they even bring back Whiteside? Or do they get someone like Greg Monroe who could be the third center behind Dok? It seems like the Jazz would want to bring back House Jr. and Paschall, but they'd need to move some other guys first. Jazz could bring back Trent Forrest, and I would think Quin would want him back, or do they let him go so they can see what they have in Year 2 Jared Butler.

Meanwhile, I think at bare minimum, this needs to be a different starting five next year. Maye it could have been a championship contender starting five in 2021, but it wasn't in 2022 and won't be in 2023. You have to look at age. Conley's 35, Bogey's 33. You have to look at on-court contributions. Of the starters, O'Neale's the only one where the team is about as good when he's on the court vs. when he's off. 

You have the look at the bench. Forrest has limited skills but he's one of the only guys you could say consistently plays hard. He can't hit a 3 to save his life, but he can drive, pass, and defend. Butler had some overdribbling habits he needs to overcome. Jauncho and NAW were midseason acquisitions. Do the Jazz give them a full year in the system, or just see what they can get for them now?

Last off-season it felt like mild upgrades and full health were what was needed. This year, their needs are lot more glaring. If they do decide they have to move one of Mitchell or Gobert, I expect it'd be Gobert who goes. He turns 30 in June, and as much crap as he gets around the league, and even though he's set to make $46 million in 2026, about 20 teams are salivating for his interior defense. Personally I still think Quin, Don, and Rudy can bring a ring to Utah; they just need the right pieces around them. Bigger and better pieces than what they have now.

NBA Rookie Watch

Rookie Watch
The Per 36 Minutes stats.

1. JOHN WALL
PER 15.2 / pts 15.3 / rbs 4.2 / ast 8.2 / stl 1.5 / blk 0.4 / fg% .405 / 3p% .290

2. EVAN TURNER
PER 10.2 / pts 11.0 / rbs 6.2 / ast 2.0 / stl 0.6 / blk 0.2 / fg% .419 / 3p% .275

3. DERRICK FAVORS
PER 13.4 / pts 12.3 / rbs 9.6 / ast 0.8 / stl 0.6 / blk 1.5 / fg% .515 / 3p% ---

4. WESLEY JOHNSON
PER 10.0 / pts 12.4 / rbs 4.1 / ast 2.6 / stl 0.9 / blk 0.9 / fg% .401 / 3p% .356

5. DEMARCUS COUSINS
PER 14.3 / pts 17.9 / rbs 10.9 / ast 3.1 / stl 1.3 / blk 1.1 / fg% .428 / 3p% .176

6. EKPE UDOH
PER 9.7 / pts 8.6 / rbs 6.3 / ast 1.4 / stl 0.7 / blk 2.9 / fg% .446 / 3p% ---

7. GREG MONROE
PER 17.5 / pts 12.0 / rbs 9.6 / ast 1.5 / stl 1.5 / blk 0.7 / fg% .548 / 3p% ---

8. AL-FAROUQ AMINU
PER 9.9 / pts 11.6 / rbs 6.6 / ast 1.5 / stl 1.5 / blk 0.7 / fg% .391 / 3p% .321

9. GORDON HAYWARD
PER 9.2 / pts 10.2 / rbs 4.4 / ast 2.3 / stl 0.9 / blk 0.7 / fg% .452 / 3p% .434

10. PAUL GEORGE
PER 13.4 / pts 13.7 / rbs 6.6 / ast 1.9 / stl 1.9 / blk 0.8 / fg% .450 / 3p% .270

11. COLE ALDRICH
PER 7.1 / pts 4.6 / rbs 8.9 / ast 1.0 / stl 1.3 / blk 1.8 / fg% .533 / 3p% ---

12. XAVIER HENRY
PER 7.0 / pts 11.3 / rbs 2.5 / ast 1.2 / stl 0.8 / blk 0.2 / fg% .406 / 3p% .118

13. ED DAVIS
PER 15.7 / pts 10.8 / rbs 10.6 / ast 0.8 / stl 0.9 / blk 1.6 / fg% .576 / 3p% ---

14. PATRICK PATTERSON
PER 17.0 / pts 13.5 / rbs 8.7 / ast 1.8 / stl 0.8 / blk 1.6 / fg% .557 / 3p% ---

15. LARRY SANDERS
PER 10.9 / pts 10.8 / rbs 7.3 / ast 0.7 / stl 0.9 / blk 2.9 / fg% .427 / 3p% ---

16. LUKE BABBITT
PER -0.6 / pts 8.3 / rbs 6.5 / ast 0.7 / stl 0.7 / blk 0.4 / fg% .286 / 3p% .091

17. KEVIN SERAPHIN
PER 9.0 / pts 9.3 / rbs 8.7 / ast 0.6 / stl 0.9 / blk 1.7 / fg% .452 / 3p% ---

55. JEREMY EVANS
PER 19.6 / pts 15.2 / rbs 7.7 / ast 1.6 / stl 1.3 / blk 1.4 / fg% .673 / 3p% ---

Now I threw in Evans because I'm Jazz-centric but also to give some perspective to the Per-36 stats. Evans' numbers look great, but they don't take into account he's averaged only 8.7 minutes a game this season. When Evans does enter, he's a burst of energy and scores quickly via alley-oop dunks or mid-range jumpers, but he's often quickly yanked because he's the lightest power forward in the league. I think the most minutes he's ever played in a game was 22.

But it still brings out revealing things when comparing to each other. I remember on draft night, just about every fan in our 1320kfan.com chatroom was upset over the Jazz taking Hayward at #9. There was hope against hope that Jazz brass might be able to swing a trade up, or that Greg Monroe or Al-Farouq Aminu might slip to #9. Most on the blog wanted a big man, as Boozer was leaving, Okur was injured, and no one had any idea of an Al Jefferson trade.

To evalutate the draft, it's best to look at the guys that were drafted after him. I remember more than one guy was clamoring for Luke Babbitt, and had that been the pick, Kevin O'Connor would likely be fired this summer. But I was in the Ed Davis or Cole Aldrich camp. Davis is doing about as well as I thought he would, whereas Aldrich has had a disappointing year. One of the knocks on Patterson was that he's an undersized power forward, and after watching Pau Gasol dwarf Boozer and Millsap in the playoffs, the Jazz did not need any more undersized players.

So plusses for Hayward, he's the best shooter of the 1-2-3's. He's certainly doing better than Henry and Babbitt, whose draft stock at the time were about even with Hayward. And as the Jazz have been getting more and more injuries, Hayward's been getting more time, and his per-game numbers are improving. I think he'll have a solid sophomore year, to the point he'd have a shot making the sophomore squad during the All-Star break.

NBA Preseason Rankings - West

Western

1. L.A. LAKERS - The last time the Lakers lost in an ugly Finals, the team blew apart. This time, Phil and Kobe aren't going anywhere. Their only off-season loss of note was Ronny Turiaf, and they'll be getting back a healthy Andrew Bynum. Kobe's the reigning MVP, and who's going to knock him off the mountain? The question is going to be chemistry. How will Bynum, Gasol and Odom all play together in the front-court?

2. UTAH - They went 38-16 after getting Kyle Korver, and since they only lost third-string point-guard Jason Hart for slight upgrade Brevin Knight, they should be able to keep that chemistry. This is still a young team, and all indications are that Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer can still get better. They need Mehmet Okur to start well, and they need CJ Miles to be a stable backup at the 3 until Matt Harpring gets back. They have two 7-foot projects in Kyrylo Fesenko and Kosta Koufos who will probably spend a lot of the season in the D-League unless the Jazz get a few more injuries.

3. NEW ORLEANS - They picked up James Posey and only lost PJ Brown. They have playoff experience. Chris Paul's the most explosive point guard in the game, and Tyson Chandler's one of the best defensive centers. They will have a good combo of outside shooting (Paul, Posey, Mo Peterson, Peja Stoyakovic) and inside scoring (Chandler, David West). But they need to find a consistant big-man player off the bench and hope that their frontline stays healthy.

4. HOUSTON - Ron Artest may be a head-case but he definitely improved Sacramento when he was there. Now that he's with a contender in Houston, I see him using this as his last real shot at a title. Not that he's that old, but really, if Yao and T-Mac still can't get out of the first round with him, what use is he? Brent Barry is there to provide outside shooting and a veteran example. Luis Scola's been a lucky pick-up. The question mark with them is health. Can all the main players stay healthy?

5. SAN ANTONIO - Four championships in seven years, and all those rings were in odd years. They can never be counted out until they lose in the first round. They won't have Manu Ginobili for a while with injuries, and that will affect their wins, which will ultimately affect their seeding. The main three are still solid, with Tim Duncan and Tony Parker, but their surrounding cast is a year older without much youth on the bench.

6. PORTLAND - I see them making the jump. They faded a bit last year, but Greg Oden is here, LaMarcus Aldridge is a year better, Brandon Roy's a stud, they had a another great draft night. They'll love the playoffs but they have so much potential, I don't see them settling for a first-round exit.

7. PHOENIX - This will be the year the Suns set. I think this will be the year Steve Nash loses a step, and Shaq's not getting any better. However, if Amare Stoudamire and Leandro Barbosa are healthy, they should still get to the playoffs. But that will be it. They traded away a ton of draft picks to stay under the cap, but their cupboard's getting more and more bare.

8. DALLAS - Jason Kidd showed he could keep up with international competition, a crucial cog to getting the gold back for the USA. Now he'll get a full year to make sure he knows where Dirk Nowitzki likes the ball. They got DaSagna Diop back for defense. Their other pieces are still in place. Buuuut, there's no doubt in my mind the Kidd trade slammed the lid on Dirk ever getting his ring.

9. DENVER - I don't see how getting rid of Marcus Camby is going to make their chemistry or defense any better. They'll win a lot of games, and maybe even make the playoffs if Phoenix or Dallas falls faster than anyone thinks, but anything less than the second round will probably result in letting Iverson walk, or a George Karl firing, or both. But I think they'll need at least 48 wins to get to the playoffs and I don't see them quite getting there.

10. GOLDEN STATE - They lost Baron Davis, and they won't have Monta Ellis for a chunk of the season. They did get Corey Maggette, but he can't be The Guy. He's great if he's your third biggest star. But there's enough intriguing parts still there (Stephen Jackson, Al Harrington, Andris Biedrins, Marcus Williams, Marco Bellinelli) to do some runnin' damage.

11. L.A. CLIPPERS - Time for Al Thornton to be the man, now that Elton Brand is gone. Baron Davis is an upgrade at point guard, but I don't see the Clips being any better than last year.

12. MINNESOTA - Randy Foye, Al Jefferson, Mike Miller, Kevin Love, Ryan Gomes, Brian Cardinal... is it enough to make a jump? I doubt it.

13. MEMPHIS - Another team in that youth rebuilding mode. OJ Mayo should be a star, and running aside Mike Conley and Rudy Gay, it could happen in his rookie year. But outside that one neat year under Hubie Brown, this has been a losing franchise.

14. OKLAHOMA CITY - The fans will be there the first year, but even if Russell Westbrook is as good as they hope, how good can this team be? Two years from now, sure, but this year?

15. SACRAMENTO - Kevin Martin and Francisco Garcia will keep them an occasional threat in games, but Brad Miller's declining and they don't have Bibby or Artest or Abdur-Rahim.