So much can change in the next few days, but here's my gut on where things are right now. And the top two teams from the East and West are head-and-shoulders above everyone else.
EAST
1. MIAMI - They went to the Finals last year, and with Shane Battier, they'll be a better team. Seems like they'd be able to get a better point guard, but they really don't need much improvement to put them over the top.
2. CHICAGO - Rip Hamilton helps them shore up that 2-spot, considering their weak spot with revolving-door work by Keith Bogans, Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer. Derrick Rose and company will be ready to stand in Miami's way. Bulls fans just need to hope this squad stays healthy.
3. BOSTON - They may be old, but Brandon Bass was a nice pick-up for them, and I can see their experience helping them rack up a lot of early season wins. Losing Jeff Green for the season really hurts.
4. ATLANTA - This strikes me as a team that needs a major change before they start seriously declining. I would expect a trade before the deadline.
5. NEW YORK - Tyson Chandler will help shore up the defense of Mike D'Antoni's team, but they still have a very shallow bench and desperately need to shore up their backcourt. But let's see how Carmelo and Amare do with a full season together.
6. INDIANA - David West is a tremenedous pickup for them. Add that to the mix of Darren Collison, Danny Granger and Roy Hibbert, and they should finish with a higher seed than they did last year.
7. ORLANDO - They still have Dwight Howard, and Jameer Nelson, Jason Richardson, and company are decent supporting pieces, but for them to win, Dwight's still going to have to shoulder the majority of the load.
8. PHILADELPHIA - Coach Doug Collins made believers of this team, and there's no reason why the good times can't continue to roll, but they needed to make a bigger splash in this oh-so-brief off-season.
9. MILWAUKEE - Maybe a full season with Stephen Jackson improves this team. They'll also need improvement from Brandon Jennings. Otherwise it comes down to health. The more games Andrew Bogut can stay in, the better they'll do.
10. NEW JERSEY - The pressure's on this club to get some support for Deron Williams. Part of me still thinks they'll figure out a way to swing a Dwight Howard trade. If they can't, they're screwed.
11. WASHINGTON - John Wall should make the leap this year, and they had two good draft picks (on paper) with Jan Vesely and Chris Singleton. Still seems like they're a year or two away from the playoffs.
12. DETROIT - They got rid of Rip Hamilton, but Tayshaun Prince decided to stay. Greg Monroe was one of last year's best rookies, and Brandan Knight was the first point guard taken in the draft. They've still got the overpaid Ben Gordon and Charlie Villenueva, but coach Lawrence Frank has proven to be able to do more with less, so they could surprise some people.
13. CLEVELAND - Yes, they got Kyrie Irving, but it's going to take a lot more than him to think about the playoffs.
14. CHARLOTTE - In rebuilding mode. Let's give Kemba Walker and Bismack Biyombo some court time and see what happens.
15. TORONTO - Should be flat-out awful this year, but at least next year they'll have Jonas Valanciunas paired with what will surely be a high draft pick in a deep draft.
WEST
1. OKLAHOMA CITY - The way they've been playing I expect them to be the best in the West. Kevin Durant will be a favorite for league MVP. The Kendrick Perkins-for-Jeff Green trade looks even more genius with Green's unfortunate heart condition.
2. DALLAS - The defending champs may have gained Lamar Odom but they lost Tyson Chandler and JJ Barea. I really don't get why they gave Vince Carter a three-year deal, but hey, Dirk is Dirk, and he'll surely want to repeat.
3. SAN ANTONIO - I think the championship window has closed for them, but Pops will keep them competitive, and they have some intriguing rookies in Kawhi Leonard and Gani Lawal.
4. MEMPHIS - The gang's back together, including Rudy Gay. They have confidence, and once you have that, you can go far.
5. L.A. CLIPPERS - As long as Chris Paul stays healthy, I do expect Lob City from CP3 and Billups to Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. It'll be interesting to see how Caron Butler fits in. But they also have Eric Bledsoe and Randy Foye and Mo Williams. They should really trade a point guard or two to get a shooting guard.
6. L.A. LAKERS - They gave away Lamar Odom for nothing, but Josh McRoberts and Troy Murphy are decent long men to serve as stop-gaps. But what is this team going to look like under Mike Brown, and how distracting will Kobe's divorce be, and what will happen when Andrew Bynum gets his annual injury? I could actually see this team miss the playoffs.
7. DENVER - It hurts to have Wilson Chandler tied up in China (not so much Kenyon Martin and JR Smith), but the Nuggets had a great draft in Kenneth Faried and Jordan Hamilton, and Nene's back, and Ty Lawson can run this team as fast as he wants. Have they tied up Aaron Afflalo? That needs to be #1 priority.
8. PORTLAND - It's been bad news for the Blazers with Brandon Roy retiring and Greg Oden getting injured again, and LaMarcus Aldridge being out for the first few games of the season. But Jamal Crawford was a decent pick-up and once LaMarcus is able to join them, they should win more than they lose.
9. UTAH - Mehmet Okur's back to full health, Derrick Favors should make a big leap between his rookie and sophomore year, and all indications are that rookie Alec Burks will be able to contribute right away. Conventional wisdom would be that this is a rebuilding year, but with vets like Devin Harris, Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Josh Howard and Okur there, they'll do whatever they can to win. And oh yeah, based on the last month of the season, I expect big things for Gordon Hayward too.
10. NEW ORLEANS - They would have had a stronger team under the Laker trade, but they're better set for the future with the Clipper trade. They got a future All-Star in Eric Gordon, some youth, draft picks, and cap space for this, Chris Kaman's last year. This team could do some damage in the West.
11. HOUSTON - Having the CP3-to-Lakers trade get vetoed really screwed them over. I expect they'll make a trade mid-season. Somehow, for something.
12. PHOENIX - Any team with Steve Nash will get some wins, but there are just not enough pieces around him. Markieff Morris isn't enough, and they have Aaron Brooks stuck in China.
13. MINNESOTA - They've been bad forever, but they have Rick Adelman as their coach now, and now Ricky Rubio and Derrick Williams are there. No, they won't make the playoffs but they should be fun to watch.
14. GOLDEN STATE - It all depends on how good a coach Mark Jackson is. They have a pretty good starting five, but not much on the bench. They'll have to hope rookies Epke Udoh and Klay Thompson will be able to contribute quickly. (I don't know if you count Udoh as a rookie or not. I'm pretty sure he missed all of the 2010-2011 season.)
15. SACRAMENTO - Tyreke, DeMarcus and Jimmer will be very interesting to watch in several lost-cause games.
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