Hours before the Ping-Pong Balls Bounce

The Utah Jazz have never won the NBA draft lottery. Granted, they're rarely there, but the last time they were in the top four, they fell to #6. They made some deals, though, to move u to #3 and were able to pick Deron Williams, who in two years had the team in the Western Conference Finals.

Williams is gone, and the Jazz got for him Devin Harris, last year's #3 Derrick Favors, this year's #6 (if nothing changes), and next year's Golden State pick Top-7 protected.

Now next year's draft looks like it will be one of the deepest in history so even if the Jazz wind up around #11 with that pick, they can still get a potential All-Star out of there. This year, however, is projected to be the weakest in a decade, and if the Jazz don't land in the top 2, I think the best they'll get are two role-players.

Now there are always surprise players who fall to late first-round or second-round who become stars, but history bears out that the lower the pick, the greater the odds the player won't pan out. And even then, the #1 pick has included players like Kwame Brown and Michael Olowokandi, the #2 pick has included Darko Milicic and Marvin Williams, etc.


I do think Kyrie Irving (PG) and Derrick Williams (SF/PF) will be legitimate stars in this league. I think Brandan Knight will be a top-ten point guard. Everyone else in this draft to me is a question mark.

So if the Jazz wind up staying at #6 and #12 (or worse, #7 and #12), then luck's going to have to be a major lady. Is it possible for a franchise-changer in this weak draft to wind up there? Sure. Is it likely? No. And without a returning All-Star on the team and a Hall of Fame coach walking the sidelines, there's also no guarantee the Jazz won't be back for many years to come.